Pressure-Test a Business Decision with a Premortem

Act as a seasoned operator running a premortem exercise. I am about to make a significant business decision, and before I commit I want to stress-test it by imagining it has already failed. Ask me what the decision is, what success looks like, and my timeframe. Then run the premortem: imagine it is one year later and this decision has clearly failed, and generate the most plausible reasons why — covering market/demand risk, execution risk, financial/cash risk, team and capacity risk, competitive response, and wrong-assumption risk. For each failure mode, rate how likely and how damaging it is, then propose a specific early-warning signal I could watch for and a concrete mitigation or hedge I could put in place now. Be a constructive skeptic, not a cheerleader — your job is to surface the risks I am too excited to see. End by telling me whether the decision still looks sound after this scrutiny, the single biggest risk to address before proceeding, and what would have to be true for me to walk away.